Published
Methodology
Systematic review of 214 peer-reviewed studies published between 2004 and 2023
Co-Authors
Dr. Priya Raghavan
Paper Length
41 pages
Cite as
Ellery, J., & Raghavan, P. (2024). The evidence leaders ignore: A systematic review. Review of Management Studies, 39(4), 502–543.
Copy citation
Leaders are rarely short of evidence; they are selective about which evidence carries weight. This review synthesises 214 studies to identify the categories of information that are routinely discounted in senior decision-making, and the conditions under which that discounting is rational.
What gets discounted
Reviewing 214 studies published between 2004 and 2023, the evidence senior decision-makers set aside is remarkably stable: findings that arrive slowly, findings that implicate the decision-maker, and findings that describe risk without prescribing action.
The timing problem
Studies that reached leaders within a quarter of the decision window were four times more likely to change a course of action than equally strong studies arriving a year later. Rigour and relevance compete, and relevance usually wins.
Making evidence usable
The most consequential change was formatting rather than research: a single page stating what the finding rules out, what it cannot say, and which decision it should reach. Where that discipline existed, discounting fell sharply.
